Interview with President of the Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes (GNFE) Prof. Elchin Khalilov

WOSCO Information Agency has interviewed the President of the Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes (GNFE) Prof. Elchin Khalilov, asking him to comment on the forecast of the disastrous earthquake which occurred in China on April 13th, 2010.

Honorable Professor Khalilov, could you provide us with your comment on the short-term forecast of the strong earthquake in China?

Indeed, GNFE provided via its website a forecast about a strong earthquake in western China with a magnitude over 5 within the time period from 04 April to 16 April, 2010. The forecast provided indicated an area covering the western part of China whereas the earthquake actually happened in the eastern part.

Thus, the forecast for the earthquake’s time and intensity has been fully confirmed; however, there was some inaccuracy in determining its location. Nevertheless, it should be taken into account that GNFE did state that a strong earthquake was expected in China in the time span specified.

What caused the forecast inaccuracy in establishing the location of the Chinese earthquake?

The fact is that GNFE has only one ATROPATENA earthquake forecast station in Central Asia, which is in Islamabad, Pakistan. The second station is located in Indonesia, and the third and fourth ones are within the territory of Azerbaijan. So, there are only three points in the Eastern Hemisphere, involved in monitoring of earthquake precursors. To establish the exact location of an earthquake’s epicenter, it is not enough to have three stations for such a large area. This was the main cause of the inaccurate determination of the epicenter of the strong earthquake which took place on April 13 in China.

Was there a strong earthquake warning addressed to Chinese official bodies?

According to the Charter and international agreement between GNFE participants, official GNFE forecasts are available only for countries forming part of the Global Network as full and associate members. Therefore, we had no legal grounds for providing the official forecast to the Chinese authorities.

Are you planning to increase the number of stations in other countries?

Certainly. GNFE is planning to set up several additional stations this year in the Middle East, Europe, Central and South-East Asia. There is no doubt that increasing the number of stations is going to significantly improve the forecast precision, especially as to locations of earthquake epicenters.

There has been a dramatic rise in the number of strong earthquakes recently. Do you think this is a temporary phenomenon, or should we expect further intensification of the seismic activity worldwide?

As you know, along with short-term earthquake forecasting, GNFE also produces medium and long-term forecasts. According to our forecasts, the seismic activity will increase dramatically and is expected to reach its peak around 2013-2015. This forecast was published by me, together with Russian Academician Viktor Khain, in 2008 and 2009 in two monographs and several articles which are freely available on the GNFE website: www.seismonet.org

You want to say that this is a global problem for the entire planet? What should be done to improve the safety of people in seismically active regions?

First of all, you should understand and acknowledge that humankind is entering an era of unusually high seismic and volcanic activity. At present, politicians and ordinary people alike have focused their attention and concentrated all their efforts on overcoming the financial crisis which caused economic and political instability in many countries. But politicians and ordinary people must know that there are some problems to emerge one of these days, which are much more dangerous and large-scale for their negative consequences than the global financial crisis.

Strong earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and other natural disasters will lead to a new global financial crisis. Imagine that strong earthquakes and volcanic eruptions would occur too frequently and simultaneously in many countries. The first financial blow would be dealt to major insurance companies. The second one would be suffered by major banks providing insurance payments. The destruction of the insurance and banking sectors would entail the beginning of a new global economic crisis, which is going to be much bigger and deeper than the previous one.

What should be done? We propose combining financial, technological and intellectual resources regardless of political boundaries, economic frictions or religious confessions to tackle the problem of global natural cataclysms.

We have specific proposals made by scientists from many countries worldwide. For the time being, more than 100 prominent scientists from 32 countries have signed a special GEOCHANGE communiqué on the global change of geological environment. This document contains concrete actions which should be taken by the world community now. In the near future, the communiqué will be sent to UN Secretary General, President of the European Union, other international organizations and heads of state as well. Currently, the communiqué and the list of signatory scientists are fully available on the website: www.geo-change.org

WOSCO Information Agency
www.wosco.org